As highlighted in the Climate Change Expert Group (CCXG) Global Forum on the Environment and Climate Change held on 17-18 March 2026 (OECD, 2026), the second Global Stocktake (GST2) will not be able to proceed as a simple continuation of GST1. It is entering a more fragmented and implementation-focused phase of climate governance, where both the internal evolution of the UNFCCC process (UNFCCC, 2026) and the external geopolitical environment are changing the conditions for ambition, cooperation, and delivery. This is evidenced by:
- Internal factors within the Paris Agreement architecture have changed significantly since GST1 (OECD, 2026). There are stronger institutional and informational foundations, including the adoption of Global Goal on Adaptation targets, the NCQG, and a richer evidence base through BTRs, NDCs, and NAPs. At the same time, the system is pivoting from negotiation to implementation, and Parties still differ on what that shift means in practice.
- External factors are becoming more disruptive. Geopolitical tensions, financial stress, weakening trust in multilateralism, disinformation risks, and rising climate shocks are central pressures on GST2. These risks are reinforced by the U.S. withdrawal from the UNFCCC and IPCC, a blow to international climate cooperation, scientific consensus, and collective momentum (EDF, 2026).
- GST2 is moving toward a more flexible, implementation-oriented, and multi-actor model (Carbon Pulse, 2026). There is a clear shift from target setting to implementation, from formal negotiations to broader cooperation, and from a mitigation-focused approach to a more holistic one that also covers adaptation, implementation support, and follow-up outside formal negotiations.
In conclusion, GST2 will need to be more adaptive, politically aware, and operationally grounded than GST1 if it is to remain relevant and credible. Arab countries have to prepare early for this shift by strengthening regional technical coordination, aligning national inputs across NDCs, BTRs, NAPs, and adaptation reporting. They also need to push for a GST2 design that better reflects implementation realities, adaptation needs, and the constraints facing developing countries.
