Amidst geopolitical roller coasters threatening global oil supply, fossil fuel actors are increasingly shaping the voluntary carbon market (VCM) (Carbon Market Watch, 2026). This is not just by using carbon credits to sustain “net-zero” narratives but also extends to influencing its governance and rules, in ways that keep credits flexible, and usable as a substitute for deeper emissions cuts. This influence is evidenced in:
- Heavy reliance of oil and gas companies on carbon credits to support climate claims, positioning offsets as a “strategic pillar” of their climate strategy. Shell retired 17.3 million credits in 2024, illustrating how credits are used at scale to back corporate climate targets and public messaging (Carbon Market Watch, 2026).
- Influence through governance access and “integrity” initiatives. The Taskforce on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets (TSVCM) membership included BP, Shell, and TotalEnergies, raising concerns that market actors most dependent on fossil fuels could end up shaping “integrity” standards. During TSVCM (2026) consultations, there was a strong opposition to financial additionality requirements and arguments that standards beyond basic legal/regulatory additionality should be “avoided or minimized,” a stance that would expand supply but risk lowering carbon credit quality.
- The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM, 2026) governance reserves seats for “market participants,” embedding active market perspectives in strategic decision-making, and pushing weaker carbon credit quality rules to expand credit supply.
Overall, fossil fuel interests are using the VCM both as a demand engine (large-scale credit buying) and as a rule-shaping arena, risking a market where “integrity” standards align with buyer needs, in a geopolitical arena of energy scarcity.
In the Arab region, where carbon projects and market hubs are expanding, credibility will depend on strict additionality, transparent consultation and lobbying records, and firm limits on offset-based claims. This is even more important amid the Iran war, which has disrupted oil production and exports across the Gulf and sharpened the need for credible carbon markets that support real decarbonisation rather than delay it.
