As wording of fossil fuel “transition” is diluted into flexible formulations, an implementation vacuum emerges, now widened by the effective US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on 27 January 2026, that encourages new upstream deals under the banner of reconstruction and energy security, especially in Venezuela and Syria (Financial Times, 2026). A climate-aligned approach can partially fill this vacuum by attaching enforceable upstream-emissions rules, transparency, and transition financing conditions, especially in fragile, post-conflict settings like Syria, to try to maintain low-carbon barrels, as evidenced by:
- Post COP 30 climate treaty text leaves ample room for oil supply expansion by loosening the GHG language to “transitioning away from fossil fuels”, leaving market signals permissive (IPI Global Observatory, 2026).
- Post-conflict rebuilding is being financed through hydrocarbons, where Syria’s devastated infrastructure and fiscal collapse make oil and gas the fastest path to cash flow, meaning the reconstruction narrative can override climate conditionality. Gulf–US consortium momentum in northeast Syria where Saudi firms ACWA Power and TAQA are reported to be partnering with US and other international companies (Baker Hughes, Hunt Energy, Argent LNG, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, TotalEnergies, and Eni) to explore/produce oil and gas across multiple blocks, signals accelerated capacity despite global transition rhetoric (Reuters, 2026).
- Accelerated oil production through political leverage, particularly in Venezuela when in January 2026, the US took over its oil sector activity via new Treasury (OFAC) licensing that allows US companies to provide goods/services for Venezuelan oil and gas production (BBC, 2026).
Oil production is inevitable for years, but how it is produced and used is the real environmental issue. This necessitates a climate alignment approach where the central climate question shifts from whether to produce to how production is governed, how emissions are controlled (methane, flaring, spills, transparency, standards), and how revenues are deployed. Accordingly, Arab countries investing in Syria should seek emission controls and MRVs, ensure earmarking a share of revenues for renewables, grid upgrades, and efficiency, and standardizing “low-emissions barrel” procurement rules across sovereign funds so reconstruction finance becomes a bridge to transition rather than a subsidy for another decade of carbon dependence. Thus, the climate impact does not become preordained by the existence of oil, but is rather shaped by governance, technology, and geopolitical decisions.
