Selective Collectivism in a Fragmented World: The New Geopolitics of Climate Action

Global climate action is driven by a fast-shifting geopolitical environment where climate priorities compete with security, industrial policy, and domestic politics. The next phase of climate action will be defined by selective collectivism: smaller, interest-aligned coalitions, coexisting with deeper fragmentation in rules, finance, and narratives. This is evidenced by the following:

1. Geopolitics and supply-chain security increasingly shape mitigation, adaptation, and energy-transition decisions, often more than negotiated texts (McKinsey Global Institute, 2025).
2. Climate finance is the primary, defining fault line in global climate action (Stockholm Environment Institute, 2026). Growing financing gaps are pushing developing countries toward the private sector, bilateral deals, debt swaps, and regional funds, accelerating a patchwork system of negotiating blocks with mutual interests rather than a global unified one.
3. Science and trust are politicized, creating “two speeds.” Geopolitical shocks such as U.S. withdrawal from the international climate platforms weaken diplomacy/finance/science pillars. This can drive mitigation to advance where competitiveness aligns, and adaptation to lag where governance and funding are hardest.

Overall, climate progress will be uneven, through coalitions of mutual interests that deliver now while the global system fragments. For Arab countries, this raises adaptation risk and demands regional finance, climate services, and resilience pipelines that can withstand geopolitical volatility.